
Oil Price Falls Further as Attention Shifts to the Economy
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East appear to be easing further. The United States and Iran have agreed to end the fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and resume peace talks. In addition, shipping through the crucial strait has restarted, reducing concerns about disruptions to global oil supply. As a result, the oil price has continued to fall in recent days. This is positive for the inflation outlook and the global economy. For investors, that is good news. A lower oil price not only means lower fuel and transport costs for companies, but also increases the likelihood that inflation will cool further in the coming months. In time, this could give central banks more room to cut interest rates. Shares Under Ten therefore remains positive on companies that benefit from a normalising economy and lower energy costs. Stock markets appear to be gradually entering a holiday mood. This is a period in which investors can sometimes become euphoric and share prices can rise sharply, but there are also years in which investors decide they have had enough and move to the sidelines. That is often when attractive opportunities arise. Buyers go on holiday, while sellers sometimes sell at lower, and possibly too low, prices. At Shares Under Ten, we therefore have our radar switched on at full strength. This week, attention will mainly shift to the US macroeconomic calendar. On Wednesday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published, while Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Fed Governor Christopher Waller are both scheduled to speak. On Thursday, the important US labour market figures will follow, including job growth, unemployment and average wage growth. These figures could be important for expectations around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. On Friday, US stock markets will remain closed due to Independence Day, the 4th of July. As a result, trading activity is expected to be lower towards the end of the week. Sunny Optical On 24 June, Sunny Optical held its Investor Day and presented a broader strategy under the theme “Optics + AI”. While the company was previously mainly known as a supplier of smartphone cameras, it is now increasingly focusing on new growth markets such as AI glasses, XR, robotics, automotive applications, optical interconnects and optical solutions for data centres. The company also announced that Vice President Ma Jianfeng will step down on 1 July. According to Sunny Optical, this is not the result of any conflict or difference of opinion with the board of directors and does not change the company’s strategic direction. At the same time, the past week was volatile on the stock market. Technology shares came under pressure worldwide after investors became more critical of the enormous investments that AI companies will have to make in the coming years. This raised doubts about whether the expected returns can justify these investments. Sunny Optical was also dragged down in this sell-off and lost significant value in a short period of time. In addition, the company announced that it will issue bonds to refinance existing debt. This is mainly a financial optimisation and does not change the underlying investment case. Shares Under Ten therefore sees the recent share price decline mainly as a result of worsening sentiment around AI and technology, rather than a deterioration in the company’s fundamental outlook. At the same time, we acknowledge that sentiment can play an important role in the short term. The stock has been highly volatile in recent weeks. For now, we are giving Sunny Optical the benefit of the doubt, but we continue to monitor developments closely. Savills This stock was only recently added to the portfolio, and so far the timing appears to have been good. Since our purchase, the share price is already almost 7% higher. This week, the real estate adviser published a new analysis of the UK housing market. It shows that the number of newly built homes is likely to remain well below the political target in the coming years. Higher construction costs, more expensive financing, limited planning approvals and worsening affordability continue to hold back the housing market. Despite this cautious outlook, the stock reacted positively. In our view, the update mainly confirms that a broad recovery in the real estate market is likely to be gradual. That is exactly the kind of environment in which Savills stands out. The company is no longer solely dependent on real estate transactions, but is increasingly earning income from advisory, research, property management and capital markets services. This makes the business model more robust than many investors realise. We therefore remain positive on Savills. The recent share price increase strengthens our belief that the market is gradually starting to appreciate the improved quality of the company, while we still see upside potential. Marston’s After the publication of its half-year results in May, Marston’s initially fell back somewhat, but the share price now appears to be finding cautious support again. This week, it was also notable that Aurelio Holding B.V., a Dutch investment company, has built a 3.97% stake in Marston’s. Such a disclosure is interesting because investors in the United Kingdom are required to make their holding public once the 3% threshold is crossed. The fact that a professional investor now owns almost 4% of the shares can be seen as a sign that larger parties also see value in the British pub chain. Shares Under Ten remains positive on the long-term story. Marston’s benefits from improving consumer spending, a further reduction in debt and an attractively valued property portfolio. The renewed institutional interest fits well with our own positive view. We therefore continue to hold the shares in the portfolio with confidence. Rolls-Royce There was also plenty of news around Rolls-Royce last week. On 25 June, the company announced that improved aircraft and engine monitoring will be introduced on Bombardier business jets. This fits within the broader shift towards digital service revenues and predictive maintenance. In addition, Rolls-Royce SMR announced on 26 June plans for a
















