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Speculating, what is that?

What is stock market speculation?

It sounds attractive to make a lot of profit on the stock market in a short period of time, but is it really that easy? It is indeed possible to make large profits in a short period of time by speculating. However, this is countered by a high risk, which means that the chance of large losses is also real. In this article you will learn more about speculation and what the differences are between speculation and (traditional) investing.

What is speculation?

A speculator plays on short-term price changes with the aim of making a lot of profit as quickly as possible. Speculators trade on  the stock exchange with a short time span  in order to profit from short-term fluctuations. Short term can mean weeks, days, hours or even minutes. Because it is done in the short term, keeping an eye on the price is important. 

This is how speculation works

It is almost impossible to predict the market in the short term, at least not consistently. For this reason, speculation is often compared to gambling. The chance that the value of  a share  will rise in the short term is practically the same as that it will fall. It is not very difficult to time the market, but speculators try anyway. They want to achieve a higher return than average and beat the market. 

However, to do this, they take a great risk. It is difficult to predict the market in a short period of time. As a result, speculators run the risk of a large profit or a large loss. In general, speculators do not invest in direct investment products, such as shares or bonds, but opt ​​for leveraged products such as  CFDs . With CFDs, they can go both long and short.

Whoever  goes long , assumes a price increase. When opening a  short position  , this is the other way around and the trader assumes a price decrease. Leverage makes it possible to make a lot of profit with a small investment. The other way around, this works the same: do you predict the direction incorrectly? Then you usually lose your investment immediately. In addition, you can lose more than the investment with some speculative products.

Example of speculation

Suppose you have €250 and want to speculate. You expect the ABC share to increase in value. You buy the security with  a leverage  of 10, which increases both your profit and loss by a factor of 10. If the share increases by 3%, this means that you as a speculator can quickly turn your €250 into €325. This works as follows: (250/100) x 3 = €7.50 x 10 (leverage) = €75 profit. Of course, this can also have a negative effect. In this example, if the share decreases by 10%, you will lose your entire investment.

When you want to speculate, there are a number of things to look out for. When you invest in shares, you often research the figures behind the company. What about the growth opportunities and the financial health of the company? This analysis method works well for long-term trading. However, for short-term trades, you need to analyze the shares you have in mind in a different way. Here, you mainly use technical analysis. 

Emotions play an important role in the short term. The vast majority of traders are not professionals, which means they react quite emotionally to global developments. The recent corona pandemic is a good example of this. In a period of a few weeks, you saw stock prices fall by tens of percent. For speculators, this is an opportunity. They buy shares because they expect prices to bounce back quickly or place a sell order if they expect the bottom is not yet in sight.

Understanding Psychology as a Speculator

Do you want to become good at speculating? Then it is advisable to delve into human nature. By understanding more about the natural risk aversion of most people, you can use this in a smart way. For example, bad news can have a great influence on the behavior of many investors. Many investors will want to get rid of their shares because of the bad news and this can cause the price to drop. As a speculator, you keep a close eye on the news and possible behavior! In addition, as a professional trader you can choose to apply technical analysis. This is a tool that can help you determine the best entry moments.

Manage your risks

When you start speculating, it is even more important that you learn to manage the risks well. You have lost as soon as you lose all the money in your account. Especially with  leveraged products,  this is a real risk. For this reason, it is advisable to manage the account that you use to speculate as a business. This way, you remove your own emotion from the trades and make decisions based on figures and data. Determine in advance the maximum amount you can lose per investment and use a stop loss on every position. This ensures that you reduce the chance that you will lose your entire investment because you have executed a few bad trades.

A stop-loss order ensures that an investor’s loss on a position is limited. Anyone can use a stop-loss. As soon as a stock reaches a certain price, it is automatically bought or sold. For example, if you set a stop-loss order of 5 percent below the price at which you bought the stock, your loss is limited to 5 percent.

Compare CFD brokers 

Want to invest in CFDs?  Compare CFD brokers  and start investing today! Comparing brokers is important for making a well-considered decision. With our tool, you can easily find a broker that suits you and save costs. 

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CFD short position

CFD Trading: Going Long CFD stands for Contract for Difference . This is a simple way to trade that allows you to make the most of your money. A Contract for Difference is a binding contract, where the seller or buyer will pay the difference between the current value of a share and a future value, to the other at the time the buyer chooses to close the contract. Is the value greater? Then the seller of the contract (the broker) pays the buyer. Has the value decreased? Then the buyer must pay more to the seller. A CFD is a derivative , meaning that it derives its value from an underlying asset, often a stock or a market index. As the buyer of a CFD, you do not own the underlying asset and are never entitled to it. It is only used to value the contract. Taking a long position with CFDs ‘ Going long ‘ is simply buying a CFD position when you expect  the stock price  to rise. A ‘long position’ is taken when an investor believes the market will rise. This is a common way to  trade CFDs . Going long in CFDs is similar to the position you would take when buying shares, for example. As a trader, you first buy the position and then sell it at a later date to close out the trade. The difference between the purchase price and the sale price is the profit or loss made on the trade. The opposite of ‘going long’ is ‘going short’ or taking a ‘short position’. In this case you assume a decrease in value from which you can profit. Buy CFD: margin When you go long with CFDs, you don’t need to have enough money to buy the asset you are trading. The amount of money you need, or ‘margin’, depends on  the broker  and what you are trading. For example, for shares you might need 10% and for other securities it might be even less. This leverage allows you to make the most of your money, as the contract still benefits from the amount the asset changes in value. Simply put, if you only put down 10% and the underlying share increases in price by 10%, you have doubled your money. We will illustrate this with an example in which we also include the necessary incidental costs that come with CFD trading. Suppose you expect the shares of company X, which currently cost €1.25, to increase in value. You want to take a long CFD position for 1000 shares. The value of this is €1500, but you do not need that much cash. CFDs of 10% require a deposit of only €150. You also pay a small commission ( a spread ) to the broker. Two weeks later, the shares have each risen to €1.35 and you decide to close the CFD position. For every day that you hold CFDs, interest is charged. In effect, you are borrowing money to maintain your position in the shares. This interest is related to the bank interest rate. For this example, we assume that the interest is €5. You close the position with a profit of 10 cents per share and have to pay a trading commission again. The net profit is 1000 x 10 cents, minus two commissions and the interest, which totals €95. 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For the same amount, you could only buy 1,500 shares with a regular stockbroker. In this example, commission is charged at 10 basis points (one basis point is 0.01 percentage points). So the commission on this trade is only 0.1% or approximately €63 (15,000 shares x €4.24 x 0.1%). You now have a position of 15,000 XYZ CFDs worth €63,600. Close CFD position A month later, the price of XYZ has risen to €4.68 / 4.69. Your expectation that the price would rise proves correct and you decide to take your profit. You sell 15,000 shares at the bid price, €4.68. The commission of 10 basis points will also apply to the closing of the transaction and amounts to €70 (15,000 shares x €4.68 x 0.1%). The gross profit on the transaction is calculated as follows: Slot level: €4.68 Opening level: €4.24 Difference: 0.44 Gross profit on the trade: €0.44 x 15,000 shares = €6,600. After deducting the commission costs (€63 + €70) from the total turnover, you realise a profit of €6,467. 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