Analysis: Light at the end of the tunnel for this company?

CM.com reported a 6% increase in gross profit over the first three months of this year. This news caused shareholders to breathe a sigh of relief, as management proved that the disappointing figures for the fourth quarter of 2022 were not due to structural problems at the company. In addition, the company will save more costs this year than initially thought. In concrete terms, this means that an EBITDA break-even at CM.com is achievable before the end of this year.

The share price has collapsed over the past 12 months. The trading update could give investors some courage, but CM.com still has a lot to prove. Analysts like the dramatic graph of CM.com, in combination with the first rays of sunshine, which is why we consider the share speculatively worth buying. We therefore buy 250 shares of CM.com at the current price of €8.41, which amounts to around 2100 euros. Although we prefer a share of a euro, this share is also well below a tenner and therefore fits our strategy. Multiples are done according to the ability to pay and the spread of your portfolio. However, it is encouraging that there now seems to be light at the end of the tunnel.

*Three-year share price trend of CM.com.*

Last year was a year of bad luck

CM.com is a global leader in the cloud software sector. The company’s communication and payment platform offers its customers the opportunity to handle their trade transactions in an optimal way. Last year, the world changed for CM.com in a way that no one could have predicted. The company was one of the companies that benefited from the corona outbreak. When the end of the corona pandemic seemed to have been reached last year, many economists thought that there would be a return to normality. Instead, 2022 brought war through the Russian invasion of Ukraine, rising energy prices and rising interest rates that we have not seen in decades. Thanks to the strength and diversity of the company in terms of products, customers and markets, CM.com was nevertheless able to execute its growth plan of last year. In doing so, the company benefited from the Covid pandemic up to and including the first quarter of 2022, so the end of the pandemic was in that sense a setback for the company.

With disappointing results

For the 2022 financial year, CM.com aimed for a turnover growth of more than 30% since applying for the stock exchange listing. The money raised through the IPO could be used to further increase investments in technology and marketing. However, the end of the ‘Covid effect’ put a spanner in the works and ultimately a turnover growth of 19% was achieved. Perhaps not a bad figure, but investors had expected a little more. In response to these figures, the share price remained under pressure. All divisions showed double-digit growth in the 2022 financial year, together accounting for a record turnover of €283.2 million. ‘Ticketing’ in particular stood out with a growth of 107%. For the full year 2022, the EBITDA was €26.5 million negative (€22.3 million normalized for one-off effects). CM.com started implementing cost control measures in the course of 2022.

It is clear that 2023 is shaping up better

These efforts were continued in 2023 and with results. CM.com is currently not yet profitable, so most analysts look at revenue growth to be able to assess how quickly the underlying business is growing. In general, companies without a profit are expected to grow their revenue (significantly) every year. Management expects a further increase in revenue, but in our opinion this increase should also be accompanied by a gradual improvement in EBITDA. For the first half of this year, an EBITDA that is still three million euros negative is still expected, but by the end of this year the EBITDA should become structurally positive. An EBITDA break-even at CM.com before the end of this year therefore seems feasible.

Against this background, the analysts at Aandelenondereentientje see opportunities for this share, knowing that these are speculative opportunities. Waiting for a proven green light will certainly mean a higher purchase price, perhaps quickly above a tenner. Our objective is that we want to buy low and below a tenner and sell again as high as possible! We are therefore now buying 250 shares of CM.com in our portfolio at the current price of €8.41.

Fundamental characteristics CM.com
Name: CM.COM
ISIN code: NL0012747059
Ticker: CMCOM
Exchange: Euronext Amsterdam
Price April 20: €8.41
Highest price 52 weeks: €20.26
Lowest price 52 weeks: €8.11
Number of outstanding shares: 29,040,095
Market capitalization: 244.227 million euros
Source: Euronext

Verder lezen?

Dit artikel is alleen voor abonnees van Aandelen Onder Een Tientje. Indien u nog geen abonnee bent, overweegt u dan ook een abonnement.

Join thousands of others?

Become a member now and get instant access to our entire platform.

The value we offer:

Remarcable 29% profit in 2024
Get all analyses of stocks under a tenner
Get insight into our current portfolio
Receive weekly updates on our portfolio
Ask your general questions about our portfolio

Lees ook

No posts found!

Analyse

We jump on the moving train…!

Yesterday we saw Avantium shares bounce back after a buy recommendation was issued. We are not hesitating, but are jumping on the train that has just started moving. The share has suffered greatly due to a large issue in which approximately €70 million was raised. Investors were disappointed and the price has collapsed! But what investors are overlooking in their frustration is that Avantium’s management has raised more than enough capital to finish their flagship, the FDCA factory in Delfzijl. A number of very large companies have committed to purchasing the promising bioplastic or to producing it under license. This indicates that this is a potentially groundbreaking product. The share is trading almost at its lowest point of the year and now that the financial position is in order for the foreseeable future, the risk-return ratio seems to have improved to such an extent that speculative investors can consider an investment. According to the initial planning, the FDCA plant in Delfzijl should be operational by the end of 2023, but the misery on the labor market – combined with the sharp increase in inflation – threw a spanner in the works. Not only did the delivery date have to be postponed (to the second half of 2024), but additional financing was also needed. With the completion of the recent €70 million issue, the financing is now completely in place; management expects to have sufficient liquidity well beyond the moment that the plant will be operational. If the plant in Delfzijl is successfully operational in the second half of the year, management expects to be able to achieve a turnover of around €100 million in 2026, with the EBITDA coming in around zero. This means that from that moment on, no more money will be spent – and Avantium therefore no longer needs to issue shares. In addition to two neutral recommendations, all other analysts have the share on “Buy”. The lowest and highest price targets are €2.40 and €9.57 respectively. The average price target is €5.24. Once the construction of the factory in Delfzijl is completed, it will be the first commercial FDCA factory in the world. If it succeeds before the end of the year, the share price will undoubtedly attract a lot of interest with sharply rising prices. Avantium has a market capitalization of only €170 million at the current price, but anyone who knows that the potential market is hundreds of billions also knows that there is a lot to be gained for the speculator. According to our expectation, the share price potential is between 100 and 400%, because if the FDCA factory in Delfzijl lives up to expectations, price targets of well above €10 can quickly be considered. We buy 1200 shares at €2.30 each. Author has position

Lees verder >

03/04/2025

Update

We bought Deceuninck for €2.27: Discover the latest developments

In this video, Rick van Zelst discusses Deceuninck stock, a leading company in the plastics sector. Sharesunderonetientje bought this stock at €2.27, and now it is around €2.45. Thanks to an optimized production process and signs of recovery in demand for plastics production, Deceuninck offers potential for significant margin improvement. Is this stock still worth it for your portfolio? Watch the video and judge for yourself!

Lees verder >

03/04/2025

Update

Today we saw another increase on our top purchase, which now brings us towards a 25% profit.

HelloFresh (HELFY) saw a remarkable 13% rise on the Frankfurt stock exchange after announcing its second-quarter results that beat expectations. Despite a 3.1% drop in orders to 28.9 million and a 3.5% drop in meal deliveries to 243.8 million, the company still managed to impress. This was thanks to an impressive 5.4% increase in average order value to €67.10, which more than offset the volume declines. The Berlin-based company highlighted that this was the twelfth consecutive quarter of growth in average order value. This growth was mainly driven by a higher contribution from ready-to-eat products, an increase in premium and customizable meals, and a broader inclusion of market items. In addition, HelloFresh reduced price incentives in several product categories. HelloFresh also took significant steps to improve its production capacity, which however resulted in one-time, non-cash write-downs of €45 million in the first half of 2024, of which €32 million in the second quarter. Despite a 23% year-on-year decline in adjusted EBITDA to €146.4 million, the consensus estimate of €123 million was exceeded. Stocksunder100 see HelloFresh’s Ready-to-Eat (RTE) business performing strongly, now accounting for around a quarter of total group revenue. Free cash flow also remains strong, despite the second quarter historically being a period of lower volume. If you’ve already stocked up big, it may be wise to take a small portion of the profits. However, we believe the stock has even more potential and therefore choose to hold the full position.

Lees verder >

03/04/2025

4.3/5