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Beta in investing

All about Beta and stocks

Beta is also the measure of the volatility of a security or portfolio compared to the market as a whole. You can also call this the systematic risk. Beta is used in the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which describes the relationship between the expected return for assets and the systematic risk. The CAPM is a widely used method for valuing risky securities and for generating estimates of the expected return. This takes into account both the risk of the assets and the cost of capital.

What is Beta in Stocks

Beta can measure the volatility of an individual stock compared to the systematic risk found in the entire market. In statistical terms: Beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points. Each of these data points represents the return of an individual stock relative to the entire market. In addition, it effectively operates the business of return as it reacts to the fluctuations.

This is how Beta works

The calculation is done by dividing the product of the covariance of the return of the security and the market return by the variance of the market return. This is always over a certain period. It goes like this:

Beta(β) = covariance of individual stock and market return / Variance of market return 

Why do you calculate Beta?

It is used to help investors understand whether a stock is moving in the same direction as other stocks on the market. It also provides insight into the volatility (also known as the risks) compared to the rest of the market. The market must be related to the stock on which the calculation is made. For example, it would not provide useful information if a bond ETF were calculated using the S&P 500 as a benchmark. Bonds and stocks are very different from each other. As an investor, you can find out how much risk you are adding to your portfolio. However, it will never say anything about the potential for higher returns.

There should always be a high R-squared value in the calculation relative to the benchmark. This is the statistical measure that represents the percentage of historical price movements of the security that can be explained by movements in the benchmark index. When determining systematic risk, a security with a high R-squared value may indicate a more relevant benchmark. A gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) such as SPDR Gold Shares is linked to the performance of gold bullion. The gold ETF has a low Beta and R-squared relationship with the S&P 500.

Systematic and unsystematic risk 

As an investor, Beta allows you to think about risks better by dividing them into two categories. The first category is systematic risk. This is the risk that the entire market will suffer a setback. The financial crisis of 2008 is a good example of this. No amount of diversification could prevent investors from losing value in their portfolios. This is why it is also called non-diversifiable risk.

The other category is unsystematic risk. Unsystematic risk is the uncertainty that comes with an individual stock. One of the most surprising announcements from the company Lumber Liquidators (LL) is that in 2015 the company had sold hardwood flooring that contained dangerous levels of formaldehyde. This is an example of unsystematic risk.

beta bij beleggen

The types of Beta values

There are different types of Beta values ​​found on the market.

Beta value equal to 1.0

A stock with a beta value equal to 1.0 shows that the price activity of the stock is highly correlated with the market. It therefore has a systematic risk. In this case, the calculation cannot detect an unsystematic risk. If you add one of these stocks to your portfolio as an investor , this will not add any risk. However, it also does not increase the chance of a higher return.

Beta value less than 1.0

With a Beta value of less than 1.0, the security is theoretically less volatile than the market. If you include this stock in your portfolio, it will be less risky than if you do not have the stock. Utility stocks are a good example of this low Beta. They tend to move slower than the market average.

Beta value greater than 1.0

If a stock has a Beta value greater than 1.0, it indicates that the price of the security is theoretically more volatile than the market. For example, a stock might have a Beta value of 1.2. In this case, the stock is assumed to be 20 percent more volatile than the market. Some examples of stocks with this value are small-cap stocks and technology stocks. Adding a stock to your portfolio will therefore increase the risk. At the same time, the expected return can also increase.

Negative Beta values

There are also shares on the market with a negative Beta value. For example, you see a value of -1.0. This means that the share correlates inversely to the market benchmark. The share can be seen as a mirror image of the market trends. Put options, for example, are designed to have this negative value. There are also other industry groups, such as gold diggers, where a negative value is common.

Beta in theory vs practice

According to the Beta coefficient theory, the stock return is normally distributed from a statistical perspective. However, financial markets are sensitive to surprises. In reality, the return will therefore not be normally distributed. The prediction that is created by means of the Beta is therefore not always true. For example, in the short term, the share may have smaller fluctuations, while in the long term it can still enter a downward trend.

From a practical point of view, it is therefore unlikely that a stock with a low Beta value that is in a downward trend will improve the performance of a portfolio. A high Beta value does not mean that it will simply generate profits. That is why you should always evaluate the stocks from other perspectives. Think of technical and fundamental factors.

The disadvantages

Beta can provide useful information when it comes to evaluating a stock. However, there are also limitations. Beta can be useful to determine short-term risks of a security and to analyze the volatility in order to arrive at stock costs using the CAPM. It is calculated based on historical data points, which makes it useless for you as an investor to predict the future movements of a stock. Long-term investments should therefore not be based on this. The volatility of the stock changes from year to year and the growth phase of the company and other factors play a major role.

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CFD Trading: Going Long CFD stands for Contract for Difference . This is a simple way to trade that allows you to make the most of your money. A Contract for Difference is a binding contract, where the seller or buyer will pay the difference between the current value of a share and a future value, to the other at the time the buyer chooses to close the contract. Is the value greater? Then the seller of the contract (the broker) pays the buyer. Has the value decreased? Then the buyer must pay more to the seller. A CFD is a derivative , meaning that it derives its value from an underlying asset, often a stock or a market index. As the buyer of a CFD, you do not own the underlying asset and are never entitled to it. It is only used to value the contract. Taking a long position with CFDs ‘ Going long ‘ is simply buying a CFD position when you expect  the stock price  to rise. A ‘long position’ is taken when an investor believes the market will rise. This is a common way to  trade CFDs . 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