Term and interest of bonds
To find out what return you can expect from a bond, it is interesting to know how long the term of your bond is. You can then simply assume the maturity date, taking into account the time it takes until the bond matures. This method does not take into account the spread repayment of securities, which makes calculating the average term a better alternative. This calculation comes down to the expected term of a bond based on previous repayments. In this way, you also take into account repayment before the maturity date.
Loan term
The bond states exactly how long the associated loan will run. When the bond’s maturity date is reached, the borrower will repay the nominal amount of the bond to you in full. Not every bond has the same term. There are both short-term and long-term bonds. If you as an investor have the choice of 2 practically identical bonds, where the only difference is the term, you will ultimately receive the highest interest for the variant with the longest term. Of course, this also means that you will not be able to access your nominal investment for a longer period, unless you sell the bond – possibly at a loss – on the stock exchange.
There are bonds with a term of 1 year, but there are also variants with a term of up to 99 years. Finally, there are also bonds without a finite term. These types of perpetual bonds are also called perpetual bonds, or ‘perpetuals’, by investors. In addition to perpetual bonds, there are other types of bonds .
Short vs. Long Term
Rising interest rates are unfavourable for bond investors in the short term. After all, this form of investment involves a leverage effect. If interest rates rise, the value of bonds falls. This has been clearly visible on the stock exchange in recent months. Bonds have become relatively cheaper. If we look at the long term, rising interest rates in particular have a positive effect on bonds. This means that they will yield a higher return on balance. Read more about investing in bonds .

Short term is safer
Although the value of bonds decreases when interest rates rise, this does not mean that they will all decrease in value at the same rate. Bonds with a short term (1-3 years, for example) will lose value less quickly than bonds with a long term. In general, you can assume that a bond with a (remaining) term of about 3 years will ultimately lose 3 percent of its value for every percentage point that interest rates rise. For a bond with a (remaining) term of about 10 years, the average loss of value in the same case is about 10 percent. From this data, you can conclude that it is therefore safer to invest in short-term bonds.
Interest on bonds
In 1981, a record was reached on the Dutch bond market. The long-term government bonds that the Netherlands issued at that time had a coupon rate of no less than 13 percent. According to some financial historians, such an extremely high interest rate on this type of bond was last seen in the 16th century. In short, quite unique.
In the meantime, the financial tide has turned considerably. After 1981, the interest on Dutch government bonds has generally continued to fall. There were periods when the coupon interest on these securities rose again, but such periods never lasted long. In the meantime, the interest has fallen below the zero percent threshold, which means in concrete terms that investors nominally lose money in advance if they invest in these types of bonds.
About 10 years ago, the long-term interest rate for Dutch bonds fell below the then average of 4 to 5 percent. Since then, countless experts predicted that the interest rate simply could not fall any further and that another increase in interest rates was in the offing. However, the opposite happened. The interest rate continued to fall and the market researchers continued to be wrong with their predictions all that time.
Interest rate increases
However, after Donald Trump was elected as the new American president, a very cautious recovery in the area of interest rates began to take place. Long-term interest rates have regained their upward trend and it seems that the United States in particular is taking the lead in this. For example, the long-term interest rate in the US rose from 1.4 to 2.4 percent in just 3 months. In the Netherlands, interest rates are also now climbing out of the valley, albeit at a slower pace. At the end of September 2019, there was still a slightly negative long-term interest rate. The 0.5 percent has now been reached again.
Whether this upward trend will continue is unclear. Even experts do not have a clear answer to this. Both camps provide relevant arguments for this. In short, only time will tell us what the final outcome will be.

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