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Maturity of bonds

Term and interest of bonds

To find out what return you can expect from a bond, it is interesting to know how long the term of your bond is. You can then simply assume the maturity date, taking into account the time it takes until the bond matures. This method does not take into account the spread repayment of securities, which makes calculating the average term a better alternative. This calculation comes down to the expected term of a bond based on previous repayments. In this way, you also take into account repayment before the maturity date. 

Loan term

The bond states exactly how long the associated loan will run. When the bond’s maturity date is reached, the borrower will repay the nominal amount of the bond to you in full. Not every bond has the same term. There are both short-term and long-term bonds. If you as an investor have the choice of 2 practically identical bonds, where the only difference is the term, you will ultimately receive the highest interest for the variant with the longest term. Of course, this also means that you will not be able to access your nominal investment for a longer period, unless you sell the bond – possibly at a loss – on the stock exchange.

There are bonds with a term of 1 year, but there are also variants with a term of up to 99 years. Finally, there are also bonds without a finite term. These types of perpetual bonds are also called perpetual bonds, or ‘perpetuals’, by investors. In addition to perpetual bonds, there are other types of bonds .

Short vs. Long Term

Rising interest rates are unfavourable for bond investors in the short term. After all, this form of investment involves a leverage effect. If interest rates rise, the value of bonds falls. This has been clearly visible on the stock exchange in recent months. Bonds have become relatively cheaper. If we look at the long term, rising interest rates in particular have a positive effect on bonds. This means that they   will yield a higher return on balance. Read more about investing in bonds . 

Short term is safer

Although the value of bonds decreases when interest rates rise, this does not mean that they will all decrease in value at the same rate. Bonds with a short term (1-3 years, for example) will lose value less quickly than bonds with a long term. In general, you can assume that a bond with a (remaining) term of about 3 years will ultimately lose 3 percent of its value for every percentage point that interest rates rise. For a bond with a (remaining) term of about 10 years, the average loss of value in the same case is about 10 percent. From this data, you can conclude that it is therefore safer to invest in short-term bonds.

Interest on bonds

In 1981, a record was reached on the Dutch bond market. The long-term government bonds that the Netherlands issued at that time had a coupon rate  of no less than 13 percent. According to some financial historians, such an extremely high interest rate on this type of bond was last seen in the 16th century. In short, quite unique. 

In the meantime, the financial tide has turned considerably. After 1981, the interest on Dutch government bonds has generally continued to fall. There were periods when the coupon interest on these securities rose again, but such periods never lasted long. In the meantime, the interest has fallen below the zero percent threshold, which means in concrete terms that investors nominally lose money in advance if they invest in these types of bonds.

About 10 years ago, the long-term interest rate for Dutch bonds fell below the then average of 4 to 5 percent. Since then, countless experts predicted that the interest rate simply could not fall any further and that another increase in interest rates was in the offing. However, the opposite happened. The interest rate continued to fall and the market researchers continued to be wrong with their predictions all that time.

Interest rate increases

However, after Donald Trump was elected as the new American president, a very cautious recovery in the area of ​​interest rates began to take place. Long-term interest rates have regained their upward trend and it seems that the United States in particular is taking the lead in this. For example, the long-term interest rate in the US rose from 1.4 to 2.4 percent in just 3 months. In the Netherlands, interest rates are also now climbing out of the valley, albeit at a slower pace. At the end of September 2019, there was still a slightly negative long-term interest rate. The 0.5 percent has now been reached again. 

Whether this upward trend will continue is unclear. Even experts do not have a clear answer to this. Both camps provide relevant arguments for this. In short, only time will tell us what the final outcome will be.

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CFD short position

CFD Trading: Going Long CFD stands for Contract for Difference . This is a simple way to trade that allows you to make the most of your money. A Contract for Difference is a binding contract, where the seller or buyer will pay the difference between the current value of a share and a future value, to the other at the time the buyer chooses to close the contract. Is the value greater? Then the seller of the contract (the broker) pays the buyer. Has the value decreased? Then the buyer must pay more to the seller. A CFD is a derivative , meaning that it derives its value from an underlying asset, often a stock or a market index. As the buyer of a CFD, you do not own the underlying asset and are never entitled to it. It is only used to value the contract. Taking a long position with CFDs ‘ Going long ‘ is simply buying a CFD position when you expect  the stock price  to rise. A ‘long position’ is taken when an investor believes the market will rise. This is a common way to  trade CFDs . Going long in CFDs is similar to the position you would take when buying shares, for example. As a trader, you first buy the position and then sell it at a later date to close out the trade. The difference between the purchase price and the sale price is the profit or loss made on the trade. The opposite of ‘going long’ is ‘going short’ or taking a ‘short position’. In this case you assume a decrease in value from which you can profit. Buy CFD: margin When you go long with CFDs, you don’t need to have enough money to buy the asset you are trading. The amount of money you need, or ‘margin’, depends on  the broker  and what you are trading. For example, for shares you might need 10% and for other securities it might be even less. This leverage allows you to make the most of your money, as the contract still benefits from the amount the asset changes in value. Simply put, if you only put down 10% and the underlying share increases in price by 10%, you have doubled your money. We will illustrate this with an example in which we also include the necessary incidental costs that come with CFD trading. Suppose you expect the shares of company X, which currently cost €1.25, to increase in value. You want to take a long CFD position for 1000 shares. The value of this is €1500, but you do not need that much cash. CFDs of 10% require a deposit of only €150. You also pay a small commission ( a spread ) to the broker. Two weeks later, the shares have each risen to €1.35 and you decide to close the CFD position. For every day that you hold CFDs, interest is charged. In effect, you are borrowing money to maintain your position in the shares. This interest is related to the bank interest rate. For this example, we assume that the interest is €5. You close the position with a profit of 10 cents per share and have to pay a trading commission again. The net profit is 1000 x 10 cents, minus two commissions and the interest, which totals €95. This is a profit of more than 60% of the stake. Long CFD trading, a profitable example To open a long position, you will need to place an order to buy the CFD you want. Each broker will use a slightly different method to place orders, but if you have bought a stock before, it is very easy to make the transition to CFDs. To go short, you need to place an order to sell the CFD. The way the order is placed depends on the broker you use. Opening the position Let’s say company XYZ is listed at €4.24 / 4.25. You expect the price to rise and decide to buy 15,000 shares as a CFD at €4.24. This bid price gives you a position size of €63,600 (15,000 x €4.24). Next, we assume a margin requirement of 10%. When placing the order, €6,360 is allocated from your account to the trade as initial margin. Be aware that if the position moves against you, i.e. the price falls instead of rising, it is possible to lose more than this margin of €6,360. For the same amount, you could only buy 1,500 shares with a regular stockbroker. In this example, commission is charged at 10 basis points (one basis point is 0.01 percentage points). So the commission on this trade is only 0.1% or approximately €63 (15,000 shares x €4.24 x 0.1%). You now have a position of 15,000 XYZ CFDs worth €63,600. Close CFD position A month later, the price of XYZ has risen to €4.68 / 4.69. Your expectation that the price would rise proves correct and you decide to take your profit. You sell 15,000 shares at the bid price, €4.68. The commission of 10 basis points will also apply to the closing of the transaction and amounts to €70 (15,000 shares x €4.68 x 0.1%). The gross profit on the transaction is calculated as follows: Slot level: €4.68 Opening level: €4.24 Difference: 0.44 Gross profit on the trade: €0.44 x 15,000 shares = €6,600. After deducting the commission costs (€63 + €70) from the total turnover, you realise a profit of €6,467. To determine the total profit on the transaction, you must also take into account the commission you paid and interest and dividend adjustments. Long CFD trade, a loss-making example It is also possible that the CFD does not do what you expected in advance and decreases in value while you have opened a long position. With this calculation example we show what the financial consequences of this are. Shares in company ABC are traded for €8.33 / €8.34. You think the price

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